The day began with shootings near the church in Ain al-Rummaneh, where Pierre Gemayel was attending a consecration; his bodyguard Joseph Bou Assi was killed. In the early afternoon Kataeb militiamen fired on a bus returning to Tal al-Za'tar from a rally of the Arab Liberation Front. Most historians count 27 dead (Hanf, Fisk, de Clerck and Malsagne: 27 of 35 passengers); Traboulsi gives 21 and Ménargues 31. According to de Clerck and Malsagne the bus carried Palestinians and Lebanese in equal numbers, all men. Fighting spread that evening across the suburbs of Beirut.

In a heated sitting of parliament Rashid al-Solh resigned, blaming the Kataeb for the fighting. His refusal to deploy the army had led the Kataeb ministers to leave the cabinet, and other Christian ministers had followed them.

De Clerck and Malsagne record that the besiegers executed some twenty Damour residents on this day, a first massacre a week after the siege began on 9 January. Whether these are the deaths reported 'at the entry of Damour' is not established.

The siege of Damour had begun on 9 January, before the fall of Karantina; the main massacre began on 20 January (Hanf, Ménargues, Fisk, de Clerck and Malsagne; Traboulsi gives 22 or 24 January). Jiyeh fell the same day. The attackers were mainly PLA, Saiqa and Fatah units, with Lebanese leftist parties. Estimates of the dead range from about 150 bodies found plus 200 missing (Fisk) and 300-584 (de Clerck and Malsagne) to about 900 (Ménargues); some 5,000 people fled by land and sea.

De Clerck and Malsagne note that Edouard Saab was Le Monde's correspondent too; a sniper shot him dead while he crossed the demarcation line.

Fisk reports that the bodies of Ambassador Francis Meloy, his economic counsellor Robert Waring and their Lebanese driver, abducted near the Museum crossing, were found that evening at Ramlet al-Baida, and that Arafat, once sure of the three Palestinians responsible, sent them to Tyre. De Clerck and Malsagne judge that the murders ended American efforts at a settlement through the Lebanese parties.

Ménargues has William Hawi shot by a Palestinian sniper in June 1976, at the end of the Tal al-Za'tar siege; Traboulsi places it during the siege. Bashir Gemayel succeeded him as Kataeb militia chief.

Later estimates for the 'two-year war' are below the figures quoted here. Published death tolls, de Clerck and Malsagne note, run from 15,000 to 40,000, and the displaced numbered at least 200,000. In The Times of 16 November 1976 Fisk reported almost 40,000 dead.

Israel, Hanf notes, would accept no Arab troops south of the 'red line', Syrian ones least of all. When a Syrian unit entered Nabatiyeh in January 1977, an Israeli protest got it withdrawn and the Palestinians kept the town.

Jumblatt was ambushed near a Syrian checkpoint of the Arab Deterrent Force; Fisk places it on the mountain road near Baaqlin. Most historians give 16 March 1977 (Traboulsi, de Clerck and Malsagne, the Confluences authors, and Hanf on one page); Hanf elsewhere and Ménargues give 17 March, which Ménargues ties to the burial. His son Walid took over, and Christians were killed in reprisal in Chouf villages. Hanf writes that most politicians, Muslims above all, took the murder as a warning against defying Syria openly, and that Jumblatt had attacked the Syrian presence in speech and print, in Lebanon and abroad.

Robert Fisk, who reported from the area, saw Israeli tanks on Lebanese soil near Ibl al-Saqi and Israeli shelling of Christian villages such as Rachaya al-Fukhar, where Palestinian guerrillas had dug in.

Historians date the Ehden killings to 13 June (de Clerck and Malsagne) or 14 June (Hanf). A unit of some 200 men (Traboulsi) led by Samir Geagea attacked the Frangieh residence; besides Tony Frangieh, his wife and their three-year-old daughter, about thirty relatives and supporters were killed. The Phalange presented the raid as retaliation for the killing of their local leader Jud al-Bayeh in early June; Bashir Gemayel denied ordering the killing of the family. The raid also turned on control of the Chekka cement works. Syrian troops then occupied Ehden and much of the north.

Bashir Gemayel's men fought a bloody battle with army units sent, at Pierre Gemayel's and Camille Chamoun's request, to separate the Kataeb and National Liberal militias, at war since 12 May. De Clerck and Malsagne call it the first serious armed clash between the army and a Lebanese militia, dating it once to 14 June and once to 18 June.

Hanf: early in 1980 Amal fought the Iraqi-backed Arab Liberation Front in Beirut's suburbs while Fatah tried to mediate, as relations between Shi'is and Palestinians grew worse; the fighting later reached the south.

Hanf sees the Iran–Iraq war of September 1980 as already being fought earlier in Beirut's suburbs: Amal and the Iraqi-backed Arab Liberation Front clashed there despite repeated ceasefires, and the fighting spread south, where a dozen villages were contested until mid-1982. De Clerck and Malsagne list the Iraqi Baath among Amal's adversaries.

In Ménargues's account Damascus rejected Takieddine Solh, finding him too lukewarm about Lebanese–Syrian friendship, and offered three names instead, Selim Hoss's among them.